Local Bottom or Hopeless Relief Rally?

GB Market Commentary 18/07/2022

by Marcus Sotiriou

Despite last week’s awful news regarding the latest inflation data, the crypto market has seen a relief rally since. Headline CPI in the U.S. for June was 9.1% year-over-year, which was well above the median forecast of 8.8% and the highest since 1981. The result of this is another blow to economic and social well-being, as the Federal Reserve are forced to be more aggressive. However, Bitcoin has risen by over 10% since the news and Ethereum has climbed by almost 40%. When the market starts reacting positively to negative news, this is a signal that a local bottom could be in for now, as fear may have caused the news to be priced in.

After the catastrophic events that have unfolded in the crypto market over the past few weeks, it is clear that stringent regulation could arrive soon. The collapse of CeFi lenders could be the reason that regulators have been looking for to implement draconian controls over cryptocurrency.

In a recent interview, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said, “More broadly, the public right now would benefit from investor protection around these various service providers … the exchanges, the lending platforms, and the broker-dealers. So, we at the SEC, are working in each of those three fields — exchanges, lending, and the broker-dealers — and talking to industry participants about how to come into compliance, or modify some of that compliance.“

The U.K. Financial Conduct Authority’s chief executive, Nikhil Rathi, outlined the FCA’s regulatory goals Wednesday at Peterson Institute for International Economics. Rathi said, “The U.S. and U.K. will deepen ties on crypto-asset regulation and market developments — including in relation to stablecoins and the exploration of central bank digital currencies.” So far, however, little is being done to support the growth of the crypto ecosystem from US and UK regulators, as their delay is pushing crypto related business away from their economies.