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Could Bitcoin be close to forming a macro bottom?

GB Market Commentary 03/01/2023

by Marcus Sotiriou

Crypto volatility remains dampened showing a lack of liquidity in the market as Bitcoin hovers around $16,700. The following indicators, however, that suggest Bitcoin could be forming a macro bottom.

Bitcoin Halving Cycles - 04/01/23

When looking at Bitcoin halving cycles, namely following the 2012 and 2016 Bitcoin halvings, we can see that from the chart above that Bitcoin bottomed around 900 days after the halvings on both occasions. Today, we are around 900 days following the 2020 Bitcoin halving, leading some to believe that history could repeat, and an uptrend could begin soon.

Net Realised Profit & Loss Over Market Cap - 04/01/23

Furthermore, crypto analyst Will Clemente points out that the capitulation in the market is equal to previous Bitcoin macro bottoms. This is shown by the net realised losses adjusted for market cap reaching the same levels as the lows of previous bear markets.

We cannot be conclusive based on this data, as Bitcoin has never endured a recession before, but it gives us a signal that we are in oversold conditions regardless.

Flare Network, a smart contracts platform built on the XPRL (XRP Ledger), is due to finally launch its token on January 9th, after two years of waiting! This bring significant opportunities for DeFi on the XRPL and could be a catalyst for adoption of the XRP blockchain, as XRP becomes smart contract compatible.

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