Can U.S. CPI data end the bear market?

GB Market Commentary 13/12/2022

by Marcus Sotiriou

Bitcoin has climbed to $17,400 at time of writing, in anticipation of U.S. CPI which is being released this afternoon at 1.30pm UK time. CPI is expected to be 7.3% year-over-year, which would be lower than the previous 7.7%, which is causing the market to be bullish leading into the release of CPI data. This is because the expected CPI of 7.3% would indicate that inflation is inflecting down convincingly, after decreasing for 2 months in a row, which would signal to the Federal Reserve that it could be time to stop raising rates. JP Morgan agrees with this idea, as they claim, "the most likely scenario, the team says, is a CPI print between 7.2% to 7.4% where the S&P 500 climbs by 2% to 3%."

According to local reports, citing the country’s attorney general Ryan Pinder, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) has been arrested in the Bahamas which “followed receipt of formal notification from the United States that it has filed criminal charges against SBF and is likely to request his extradition.”

The AG office reported, “on 12 December 2022, the Office of the Attorney General of The Bahamas is announcing the arrest by The Royal Bahamas Police Force of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), former CEO of FTX.”

The news follows the reports that said ex-Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison hired Wilmerhale partner Stephanie Avakian, an attorney that worked for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Bankman-Fried has reportedly retained attorney Mark Cohen, the lawyer who represented Ghislaine Maxwell during her recent sex trafficking case.

Prime minister (PM) Philip Davis said that “the Bahamas will continue its own regulatory and criminal investigations into the collapse of FTX, with the continued cooperation of its law enforcement and regulatory partners in the United States and elsewhere.”

Unfortunately though, SBF was supposed to testify under oath before Congress today, who would then charge him with a crime, hence prosecutors have potentially saved SBF from incriminating himself. Nonetheless, SBF may have already incriminated himself enough with all of the Twitter Spaces he has been featuring on.