GB Market Commentary 04/03/2022
by Marcus Sotiriou
Bitcoin sold off to retest the 20-day moving average at around $41,000 this morning, after the impressive 32% rally over the past week. Bitcoin failed to secure a higher-high on the daily time frame as it closed below the key $44,600 level. Bitcoin is not bullish on the daily time frame until this level is reclaimed.
Despite the fall today, on-chain metrics from blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock shows that 180,000 Bitcoin has been withdrawn from exchanges this year, as net flow has once again turned negative. The last time we saw outflow being consistently negative was in early November when Bitcoin reached a new all-time-high. Bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges is bullish as it indicates these market participants are long-term holders.
Crypto exchanges are being pressured to block Russian users. This puts exchanges in a difficult position. They clearly want to cement relationships with regulators and be on their side, but they also want to provide technology neutrally without being political. Binance CEO, CZ, has said that although they are complying with sanctions on Russian users, by restricting cardholders of sanctioned Russian banks, they will not be issuing a blanket ban on Russian users. I believe this is a great decision from Binance, as it aligns with the decentralised ethos of the crypto industry.
Many Russians and Ukrainians have turned to Bitcoin to store their wealth since the war broke out, as we can see that volume for the Bitcoin Ruble base pair has skyrocketed, whilst Bitcoin premium has risen on Ukrainian markets. These are signs that people are waking up to the power of censorship-resistant, borderless money.